Brett King: The Man Who Sees Tomorrow in Today's Tech

Brett King.

He’s the co-founder of Moven. Not one, but two global #1 podcasts. Author. Thought leader.

Futurist.

Four kids, a life split between Raleigh and Thailand, and a history that's touched countless nations across his career.

Yet, behind the titles and travels, Brett's true essence lies in his uncanny ability to predict and shape our financial future. As technology, finance, the economy, and our future converge like never before, Brett's insights act as a compass. So, when a man known for charting our tomorrows talks about his own path ahead, you pause and listen.

Brett effortlessly bridges the chasm between the rigidity of traditional banking and the dynamic world of digital innovation. "Historically, 2012 was probably the year where we started using the term fintech broadly. But I was on it around 2008, 2009," he remarks casually, highlighting a journey that began long before the term "fintech" became part of the lexicon.

For the uninitiated, Brett's journey in the financial services industry began well before the fintech boom. He recollects working with HSBC, Citibank, and other banking giants through the dot-com era, focusing on their internet strategies. "I ran the very first usability tests that HSBC had ever done globally," he shares, shedding light on his influence in the digital arena.

However, his role wasn't just confined to being a consultant. He played an integral part in HSBC's digital operations both in Hong Kong and globally. Furthermore, his strategic vision for Standard Chartered's dot-com platform in 2007 is testimony to his forward-thinking mindset. He mentions how, in the early 2000s, he used to run "multi-channel audits," an innovative method back then, where he'd evaluate engagement across various channels, from branches to call centers to the internet.

His endeavors in the early days hint at an undeniable fact: Brett was digitally inclined before it became mainstream. But it wasn't just about understanding tech – it was about understanding its intersection with banking. In one of his talks, Brett quipped about the old hierarchy within banks. The head of digital, or "e-services" as they were sometimes known, would often find themselves sidelined, reporting under the IT function or retail banking. But times have changed, and Brett candidly notes, "Now we have the Chief Digital Officer emerging."

Yet, the climax of this change isn't just about titles and roles. "The end game," Brett postulates, "is that the CEO must be technology capable. The DNA of the business is no longer a bank; it's a technology company that does banking." He envisions a time where the CEO of a major bank has a tech background, underscoring the pivotal role technology now plays in banking.

But what does the future hold? Here, let’s think of the inevitable comparisons between the publishing industry's transformation and the potential trajectory of the financial sector. Drawing parallels with how Google and Facebook revolutionized ad revenues, the big question emerges: Will traditional banking giants like HSBC and Citibank face a similar fate as the New York Times in the face of digital juggernauts?

Brett doesn't shy away. "I think that's already happening," he states. The fastest-growing financial institutions today are all digital. The future, as Brett sees it, is a dynamic ecosystem, a blend of fintechs, tech giants, and traditional banks, all navigating the vast ocean of the financial services landscape.

In a world rapidly turning digital, questions about the future of traditional banking behemoths versus nimble fintech startups become ever more pertinent. For Brett, a veteran at the intersection of tech and banking, the answers are clear but multifaceted.

Imagine it's 2033. Will the digital dynamism of Nubank, Revolut, and the like overshadow the might of JP Morgan, Citibank, and HSBC? Brett leans in, "it hasn't so far," he says, referring to the regulatory environment's perceived power to halt the growth of these fintech mavericks. He dives into a comparison, citing China's early progressive stance on fintechs which allowed them unprecedented growth before reeling them in with regulatory measures. On the other side of the world, the U.S., in its reluctance to introduce fintech charters, has lagged in fostering a challenger bank ecosystem. "The more regulation to restrict fintechs, the slower the growth in market innovation," he states, hinting at the U.S. potentially losing its standing as the most advanced banking economy.

"If you have a bias towards the incumbent industries like in the U.S., it's hurting them in terms of net innovations," Brett points out, emphasizing the reality that in a decade or so, half of the top 20 financial institutions globally will likely be tech-first. He ponders the fate of Ant, foreseeing that its various components in the 2030s could still collectively be more valuable than even JPMorgan.

Transitioning to the European landscape, Brett contrasts the European and U.S. regulatory environments for fintechs. Europe, especially the UK, earns his applause. "The UK has attracted more fintech talent than even Silicon Valley," he shares. With entities like Revolut boasting close to 30 million customers, Europe has proven to be a favorable breeding ground for fintech innovation. "Europe has done fairly well," Brett nods, dropping names like TransferWise and juxtaposing them with U.S. entities like Stripe and Venmo.

However, the entry barrier differences are stark. "In the UK, I can start a bank for basically a million dollars of capital adequacy. In the United States? 50 million," Brett emphasizes. This sizable hurdle, he opines, makes it tougher for U.S. startups to hit those big exits, as seen in other parts of the world. For Brett, the future is digital, but its landscape will be carved out by regulations, innovations, and the audacity of those willing to disrupt the status quo.

Survey the fintech landscape, and you might see it as an intricate web of regional players, each focused on its corner of the world. But will it always be this way, or will we see a consolidation of power much like in the tech world? "Operating systems have an advantage," says Brett, elaborating on how players running smartphone OS's, smart glasses OS's, and AI may dominate the landscape. He sees the future of banking as a "smart bank account" that brings together various value stores, from traditional and crypto to metaverse and Central Bank digital currencies.

While the notion might sound outlandishly futuristic to some, Brett posits that by the 2040s, many facets of our financial ecosystem will be governed by algorithms. Imagine a world where algorithms dictate market functions, taking the helm from human decisions.

And yet, beneath the awe of these advanced technologies lies a more profound philosophical debate. As our lives become increasingly intertwined with these algorithms, will our perception of money and market functions shift? "We're entering a period where the value of money and markets as we know them will be challenged," Brett states, acknowledging that the current capitalist system may not be sustainable for future generations.

Climate change, gross inequalities, and capitalism's perceived shortcomings provide a backdrop for the challenges ahead. As Brett outlines, the lessons our children glean from our era might very well lead them to challenge long-standing economic systems in favor of more equitable and sustainable solutions.

He paints a vivid picture: "Our children will have very different priorities rather than the accumulation of assets and the growth of economies in classic GDP terms." This shifting perspective will undoubtedly influence how we approach debt, investments, and even the core idea of value.

This, of course, brings up an elephant in the room: the larger implications of our continued allegiance to capitalism. "If we double down on capitalism in its current form, there's a strong argument to be made that this will eventually result in the extinction of the human species." Brett says this with the casual nature of a man accustomed to looking ahead and seeing storm clouds on the horizon.

Brett King doesn't merely offer insights into the future of fintech; he presents a larger narrative about the confluence of technology, capitalism, and human experience. This evolving story, he suggests, demands a reevaluation of our values, aspirations, and the systems we build and abide by.

The concept of future markets and money has always fascinated thinkers, and Brett King's perspective is no different. Anchored in historical references, contemporary challenges, and speculative futures, Brett delves deep into the evolution of financial systems, especially in the next few decades.

Think of the immediate challenges: the ambitions of nations like China and Russia to de-dollarize global trade and the rapid technological advancements China showcases, particularly in AI and Central Bank Digital Currency. With their vast investments in developing nations like those in Africa, China's influence on the future global economic architecture cannot be understated.

Beyond these geopolitical tussles, there's a pressing need to rethink the structure of our economies, especially with looming challenges like climate change and AI-driven labor displacement. Classic U.S economic frameworks, for instance, fail to account for the vast costs required for climate mitigation, costs justified not in immediate economic returns, but in saving billions of lives. This focus on human welfare over pure market mechanics, Brett argues, will be vital in the coming decades.

Central to Brett's vision of the future is the evolution of Artificial Intelligence. As AI disrupts employment, the foundational capitalist principles, particularly those centered on human labor and supply-demand economics, shatter. How do you distribute wealth in an economy where the primary mechanism so far has been through wages? Solutions like Universal Basic Income present their own challenges, like perpetuating economic stratification.

Brett's notion of "technosocialism" is a direct extension of these values. In his book The Rise of Technosocialism (written with Dr Richard Petty) he outlines four potential future scenarios, distinguished by the extent of planning (planned vs. chaotic) and their inclusiveness (inclusive vs. exclusionary):

1. Luddistan: Efforts to slow down AI's economic impact but with limited success.

2. Failedistan: A chaotic outcome where insufficient action is taken in time, leading to the collapse of economies.

3. Neofeudalism: A planned, exclusionary future resembling an intensified capitalism, serving a narrow elite.

4. Technosocialism: A planned, inclusive future. Here, technology drastically reduces government costs while simultaneously delivering broader societal benefits, such as eliminating homelessness and providing better healthcare.

Technosocialism, though presenting an optimistic future, requires challenging established capitalist philosophies and breaking oligopolies. It's a vision where technology is harnessed for the broader good, rather than concentrated benefit. But whether humanity chooses this path or another remains to be seen. As Brett notes, for many futurists the odds are evenly split between evolving into a more inclusive society or succumbing to control mechanisms rooted in monetary power.

Brett delves deeper into the challenging realm of international disparities and how the hypothetical technosocialist world might address them. Drawing parallels to the Industrial Revolution's outcomes on global hierarchies, Brett acknowledges the complexity of the situation. During the Industrial Revolution, industrialized nations gained an immense advantage, leading to wealth disparities between nations, with many poorer countries relegated to being mere raw material suppliers. Brett's perspective on the future suggests that technological advancements could play a similar role in reshaping global hierarchies.

Brett believes that nations like China are ahead in this race towards a technosocialist world due to their streamlined political systems, enabling quicker decision-making and large-scale societal changes. By contrast, the polarization in two-party democratic systems, like in the US, impedes swift action, making it harder to respond to evolving global challenges.

Drawing from this, Brett suggests that future global hierarchies may not rely as heavily on a country's historical economic prowess or traditional competencies. Instead, the defining metric could be how "smart" an economy is. This refers to the extent of AI integration into daily infrastructures – from energy to food production, from traffic management to water sanitation. In essence, the next global superpowers could be those nations that best harness the potential of AI and other cutting-edge technologies to streamline and improve all sectors of their economies.

Interestingly, this could offer a potential leveling of the playing field for historically underprivileged nations. For instance, if African nations invest heavily in next-generation renewable energy infrastructure, they could leapfrog older, more established power infrastructures seen in Western nations, allowing them to become energy leaders in a post-fossil fuel world.

Moreover, as automation technologies advance, the trend of offshoring might reverse. Countries could shift back to onshoring, with the US, for example, becoming a manufacturing hub once more, but now powered by robotics instead of human labor.

While this future promises opportunities for nations to redefine their positions in global hierarchies, the transition is bound to be tumultuous. As Brett asserts, it won't be a smooth or clean transition. The next 20 to 30 years might witness messy shifts, with fluctuating reliance on fossil fuels, potentially leading to energy crises, before stabilizing in the 2050s with highly autonomous, AI-driven economies leading the world.

The underlying takeaway from Brett's discourse seems clear: the nations that can best adapt to and integrate these new technologies will be best positioned to lead in the future. However, this race towards a technologically advanced future must be undertaken with caution, ensuring it doesn't perpetuate or exacerbate existing global inequalities.

Brett doesn’t mince words when discussing the broader macroeconomic trends and their implications. "The economies that truly stand out in the 2050s will be the highly autonomous ones, those deploying AI extensively for day-to-day infrastructure,” he predicts. This is a world where knowledge economies will reign supreme, underpinned by next-generation infrastructure and tech.

Rather than drawing from traditional Marxist principles, Brett's vision of technosocialism revolves around the idea that "citizens own the economy." He passionately argues for an economic model where the immense wealth created by AI and technological advancements primarily benefits the community at large. Such a system would prioritize human and planetary needs above market stakeholders, a necessary shift in perspective as we grapple with existential threats like climate change and economic disparity.

Brett challenges us to rethink our understanding of economies, banks, and the role of technology. While the road ahead is uncertain, with minds like King at the helm, there's hope for a future where technology and humanity coalesce, driving us toward a more equitable and sustainable world. As King himself says, "It's about re-gearing the economies towards the needs of individuals." It's a call to arms for all of us – to envision, to innovate, and to evolve.

And as for Brett’s own future? The futurist teases, "stay tuned, I've got three new books I'm working on. You're definitely going to hear more from me."

Until then, you can listen to his two podcasts, The Futurist and Breaking Banks, which are both number one in their industries, and his four books here.

Images courtesy of: Brett King